Crunch time for the home nations

First published in The Rugby Paper on 31 October 2010, and reproduced with their consent.

With RWC 2011 just ten months away, the forthcoming Investec Autumn internationals are crunch time for the home nations, and especially for their coaching teams. A successful autumn campaign against the Southern Hemisphere teams and confidence will be high, but if it goes badly then it will be time for them to receive the dreaded vote of confidence.

England play New Zealand, Australia, Samoa and South Africa and that might just be a propitious order of play. Lose badly against the All Blacks and the Aussies and there is still a chance that things can be redeemed in the final two games: a win against the fading RWC 2007 champions could be spun as a great success, when in all honesty it might be no such thing. The RFU's newly-appointed Chief Executive, John Steele, wants to see England heading into RWC 2011 on a high, and he recently made clear that he's prepared to do whatever is necessary to make that happen, pointedly refusing to rule out changes to the coaching set-up even at this late stage. That is in stark contrast to the view of RFU Chairman, Martyn Thomas, back in May when he was adamant that Johnson would stay in position through to the RWC.

Back in 2002 England beat the Tri-Nations sides at Twickenham in the Autumn and went into the following RWC as hot favourites, and anything other than a good set of results over the coming months will be, despite the spin that would emerge from Twickenham, a total disaster. England has the players, the infrastructure, and the money, and the coaches have much greater access to the players than ever before: all that is now needed is success. England expects, and the time has come for Johnson and his team to deliver – the stakes could hardly be higher.

Warren Gatland, new contract safely in his back pocket, sends the Welsh out against the Tri-Nations countries plus Fiji.  Dramatic improvement is needed on the back of a pretty dreadful run of recent results, but will it happen? Frankly, it's hard to see why it should. A poor Autumn in 2009 was followed by a disappointing Six Nations, and an even worse summer. All the indications are that Wales are in decline and a minor miracle will be needed for them to become a force in the RWC – let's hope I'm wrong.

Ireland too must be approaching the coming Tests with some trepidation. There are losses and then there are hammerings, and shedding 66 points to New Zealand back in June is something that won't readily be forgotten. Once again, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that it's a time of change for the Irish, with old stalwarts fading and new blood not delivering as quickly as was hoped; not what is needed with the RWC fast approaching.

In contrast, Scottish results in recent months have exceeded the expectations of all but the most diehard of fans. After his rotten experience with England no-one will surely begrudge Andy Robinson some success, and with the limited resources at his disposal he has, so far, worked miracles. Two away wins in Argentina over the summer were not to be sniffed at, and they came after a strong end to the Six Nations where they drew with the 'auld enemy', and then destroyed Ireland's Triple Crown ambitions at Croke Park. New Zealand, South Africa and Samoa will be stern tests but none of those nations will dare take the Scots lightly.

Sweaty palms times for the home nations' coaches then, and if the Tri-Nations sides maintain their recent form there could yet be some coaching blood spilled as the Unions start to panic about their 2011 prospects.