Rugby Test Matches used to be something special, but now they’re ten-a-penny, or so it seems.  The first games of the autumn series of internationals should serve as a warning that the paying punters are a bit more savvy than the home Unions seemingly thought.

Starting with Ireland, it’s hard to imagine a bigger PR disaster than the shots of the newly-redeveloped  Lansdowne Road – now the Aviva Stadium – with row upon row of empty seats.  It can’t have been what the powers-that-be or the sponsors wanted, but why did it happen?  First of all let’s state the obvious: the Irish economy is down the pan with a vengeance – more a tired old moggy than a Celtic Tiger nowadays.   In those circumstances whose bright idea was it to construct a ticketing policy that obliged punters to buy tickets for all four autumn internationals rather than on a game by game basis?  The economy’s shot to hell, but supporters are asked to fork out €340 for their seat – oh and by the way, those prices concealed a roughly 25% hike over the previous year’s matches at Croke Park! 

Not surprisingly, the fans told the IRFU what to do, and kept their credit cards firmly in their pockets.  At the eleventh hour the Union had a change of heart, ate a sizeable helping of humble pie, and announced ‘a comprehensive review of its entire ticket sales strategy, which includes price tiering, bundling and distribution channels’.  Too little too late, and attendances for the first two matches were embarrassingly low – 35,000 for a Test against the World Champions was a humiliation for the IRFU.  Incidentally, at the Ireland v Samoa game it was announced that 31,000 was a record for a clash between the two nations – talk about making the best of a bad job!

Wales’ first game, against Australia saw more than 20,000 empty seats in the Millennium Stadium, and there were still huge gaps for the clash with South Africa.  The WRU Chief Executive, Roger Lewis, lays the blame fairly and squarely at the door of Wales’ economic troubles, saying that his customers are being very cautious about where they spend their money.

Scotland too had their woes: failing by about 10.000 to sell out a game against the All Blacks is shocking, and those that did turn up will surely think twice about going again!  The result was so dire that almost a week after the event the SRU had ‘forgotten’ to update the results section of their website – I’m not surprised.

England did sell out their first two games, and so they should.  With a population of over 50M compared to Ireland’s 6M, Scotland’s 5M, and Wales at 3M, it would be a major surprise if it didn’t happen.   That said, tickets for the clash with the All Blacks were still available late in the day, and that must be a slight cause for concern.

The IRB’s Chief Exec says that all of this is just a ‘blip’, but I bet that was said more in hope than expectation.  Yes, the economy plays its part, but it is foolish to think that’s all that’s behind the problem.

The fact is that there is now too much Test rugby being played, and most of the games don’t actually matter much.  When games mean something – the Six Nations and the World Cup – the fans will come out in force, but they see the autumn Tests for what they are: predominantly a revenue generating scheme.

And there’s the rub.  The RFU announced its results this week and, recession or not, they were pretty impressive.  The £112M revenue was £7M down on the previous year, but that was because there were only three autumn internationals rather than four, and it was one of the years when England were away three times in the Six Nations.  The message that comes out loud and clear is that internationals at Twickenham are what keeps English rugby afloat.  Never mind that they’re not games that really matter, other than as a preamble for the real business of the Six Nations and the World Cup – the money they generate is vital.

So, square this circle: I’m convinced that fans are becoming disillusioned with too many Test matches, but rugby’s finances depend hugely on those games.  England will get away with this – their potential audience in Greater London alone is more than the population of any of the other home nations – but what of Ireland, Wales and Scotland?  Can they fill their huge stadia three or four times every November?  If they can’t then they’re potentially in real trouble.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

On the back of England’s great win over the Aussies, some awkward questions need to be asked.  They won’t matter to those in the corporate hospitality enjoying a good day out, but the dyed-in-the-wool England fans will have it in the back of their minds.  Has the sudden and wonderful improvement in England’s style of play been because of the coaches’ careful planning over the past couple of years, or has it been achieved in spite of them?  It’s wonderful to see the fresh blood – Ashton, Foden, Laws and so on – doing so well, but what took us so long to blood them? 

First published in The Rugby Paper on 21 November 2010, and reproduced here with the editor's permission